Asymmetry,Complementarities, and State Dependence in Federal Reserve Forecasts

Forecasts are a central component of policymaking; the Federal Reserve's forecasts are published in a document called the Greenbook. Previous studies of the Greenbook's inflation forecasts have found them to be rationalizable but asymmetric if considering particular subperiods, for example, before and after the Volcker appointment. In these papers, forecasts are analyzed in isolation, assuming policymakers value them independently. We analyze the Greenbook forecasts in a framework in which the forecast errors for different variables are allowed to interact. We find that allowing the losses to interact makes the unemployment forecasts virtually symmetric, the output forecasts symmetric prior to the Volcker appointment, and the inflation forecasts symmetric after the onset of the Great Moderation.     

企业社会责任与企业价值——组织惰性与行业敏感度的调节作用

以2012—2016年沪深两市A股上市公司的数据为依据,通过实证分析研究了企业社会责任对企业价值的影响,并从组织层面和行业层面的视角探讨了组织惰性和行业敏感度对该影响的调节作用。研究结果表明,企业社会责任对企业价值具有显著的促进作用;组织惰性减弱了企业社会责任对企业价值的促进作用;行业敏感度阻碍了企业通过履行社会责任进而提升企业价值的过程。     

Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions

Accurate identification of economic recessions in a timely fashion is a major macroeconomic challenge. The so-called Sahm recession indicator (Sahm, 2019), one of the most reliable early detectors of the U.S. recessions, relies on changes in unemployment rates, and is thus subject to misclassification errors in labor force statuses based on survey data. We propose a novel misclassification-errors correction to improve the predictive timeliness and provide a proper threshold value. Using historical data, we show that the adjusted unemployment-based recession indicator offers earlier identification of economic recessions.     

金融发展地区差异对投资的影响——基于我国省域综列数据的实证研究

文章利用1995￣2004年全国28个地区的统计数据,构建了我国省域金融发展综列数据集,并运用固定效应模型对地区金融发展给地区投资带来的影响进行了实证分析。文章认为,我国地区层面的金融发展对地区投资仍然存在正向影响;地区金融发展促进投资增长呈现明显的地区差异;对外开放对各地区的投资增长有显著作用,东部略大,中部次之,西部略小;投资与经济增长之间没有明显的加速提升效应;我国金融改革的当务之急是完善金融结构的功能,改善金融体系功能低下的现状,提高投资效率。     

集成化物流的管理控制模式探讨

集成化物流作为一种全新的物流组织模式,其管理控制模式有其独特之处。本文认为其管理模式应该是一种基于规则和流程相结合的管理模式,并对其实施的必然性和实施的要点作了进一步的论述。     

Institutional Impediments to Voluntary Ethics Measurement Systems

In this paper, we argue that calls for widespread implementation of ethics measurement systems would be better informed by institutional economic analysis. Specifically, we assert that proponents of such systems must first recognize and understand the institutions that potentially impede such efforts. We identify two potential institutional impediments to measuring ethics and social responsibility. First, we suggest that neoclassical economics, supported by traditional business education and legal precedent, serves to reinforce the notion that shareholders are the primary corporate constituency group. Such an emphasis on the needs of shareholders severely hinders implementation of measurement systems that address the needs of multiple stakeholder groups. Second, we argue that the threat of litigation may constrain corporate managers from measuring and considering ethics and corporate social responsibility matters. In particular, managers may be reluctant to quantify various ethical concerns if the resulting measurements could be used as evidence against the corporation in a lawsuit.     

On the Closeness Aspect of Three Voting Rules: Borda – Copeland – Maximin

This paper provides a comparison of three voting rules, the Borda rule, the Copeland rule and the maximin rule. Our analysis based on the rankings derived from those voting rules will shed new light on existing comparisons based on “closeness” between the three voting rules under investigation. In particular it will be shown that both, the rankings derived from the Borda rule and the maximin rule and the rankings derived from the Copeland rule and the maximin rule, will be exactly the opposite for certain preference profiles.     

Kicking a crude habit: diversifying away from oil and gas in the twenty-first century

Abstract

This article investigates the correlates of diversification away from oil and natural gas dependence in the context of the twenty-first century resource boom (and bust). In a sample of 40 oil- and gas-dependent economies, the majority showed significant sectoral diversification of GDP, but exports remained highly concentrated in fuel exports. Regression analysis indicates that countries that began the boom with higher levels of oil and gas dependence, poorer countries, and those with significantly larger- or smaller-than-average populations were more successful in diversifying their GDP during the commodities boom. Governance matters – more effective, capable bureaucratic structures are associated with greater GDP diversification away from oil and gas – though the effects are not uniformly positive. For any given level of government effectiveness, stronger rule of law is associated with less GDP diversification. Education appears to affect GDP and export diversification differentially. Consistent with endogenous growth theory, countries with more educated populations saw greater growth in their nonresource sectors than countries with less educated populations, though education is associated with greater export concentration. Internal economic diversification in the twenty-first century has been less a matter of policy formation and implementation, and more a matter of factors that shape the policy-making environment.     

商业判断规则对中国公司法的启示

商业判断规则是美国法院对董事注意义务审查的一项重要准则，其内容是任何人要质疑董事的决策需推翻这样一个假定：董事在知悉的基础上，基于善意并相信是为公司的最大利益而做出的决策，否则法官会尊重董事的决策。商业判断规则的产生为公司的董事和他们的行为提供了在商业决策中回避风险的安全港。与之相比，我国公司法中关于董事勤勉义务的规定过于抽象，操作性不强，可以借鉴商业判断规则对其进行完善。     

Optimal granularity for portfolio choice

Many optimization-based portfolio rules fail to beat the simple 1/N rule out-of-sample because of parameter uncertainty. In this paper we suggest a grouping strategy in which we first form groups of equally weighted stocks and then optimize over the resulting groups only. This strategy aims at balancing the trade-off between the benefits from optimization and the losses from estimation risk. We rely on Monte-Carlo simulations to illustrate the performance of the strategy, and we derive the optimal group size for a simplified setup. Furthermore, we show that estimation risk also has an impact via the criterion by which the assets are sorted into groups (like the expected excess returns or betas), but does not negate the grouping approach. We relate our work to linear asset pricing models, and we conduct out of sample back-tests in order to confirm the validity of our grouping strategy empirically.